The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 have plunged again after Senate Democrats pushed back against Republicans’ latest attempt to break a months-long stalemate over the US crypto legislation.
Polymarket traders briefly lifted the probability to around 35% after Republicans unveiled a revised proposal with expanded ethics protections. But optimism quickly faded as key Democrats said the changes did not go far enough. The market fell as low as 16% on Monday and stood at about 18% on Tuesday, with more than $17 million wagered on the contract.
(Source: Polymarket)
Senator Mark Warner reportedly said the revised ethics provisions were not “near enough,” while Senators Raphael Warnock and Ruben Gallego also raised objections. Democrats have since submitted a counterproposal to Republican negotiators.
Tuesday vote could determine CLARITY Act’s fate
The immediate test comes on Tuesday, when the Senate is scheduled to vote on cloture for the motion to proceed with the bill.
Crucially, this is not a vote to pass the CLARITY Act. Instead, 60 senators must agree to advance debate. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, which means at least seven Democrats would need to support the motion if every Republican votes in favor.
The latest Republican draft reportedly incorporates 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats. Those include stronger ethics restrictions and a provision allowing state attorneys general to help enforce certain rules. It also gives the Treasury secretary authority intended to address concerns that high-yield crypto products could pull deposits away from banks.
President Donald Trump agreed to key ethics concessions ahead of the vote, but the changes have so far failed to produce the bipartisan breakthrough Republicans need.
Even a successful cloture vote would leave several hurdles. The Senate would still need to debate amendments and pass the legislation. Because its version differs from the bill approved by the House in 2025, both chambers would ultimately need to approve identical legislation before it could reach Trump’s desk.
Time is also becoming a major obstacle. Congress has a narrowing legislative calendar ahead of the November midterm elections, which makes a failed procedural vote more difficult to recover from.
That explains why prediction markets are still skeptical despite Republicans’ concessions. For crypto firms hoping the CLARITY Act will finally establish clearer boundaries between SEC and CFTC oversight, Tuesday’s vote may be one of the most consequential legislative tests of the year.
