Bitcoin’s recent rally has come with a notable change in how the asset is trading relative to traditional markets.
Its 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 50%, up from close to zero at the start of 2026, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen to roughly 33% from more than 60%, according to Grayscale research.
The move suggests Bitcoin has recently behaved less like a high-beta technology trade and more like a scarce macro asset. It does not prove a permanent shift, however, since rolling correlations can change quickly as new price data enter the calculation.
Bitcoin Rally Gets a Macro Boost
The correlation change has appeared during one of Bitcoin’s strongest stretches of the year.
BTC rose from roughly $62,679 on Aug. 17 to $79,500 on Aug. 21, a gain of about 27% in four days. The rebound was supported by Treasury bond-buyback changes, a weaker dollar, short liquidations and renewed institutional demand.
Those same forces were visible in Coinpaper’s recent BTC rally, where weekly spot Bitcoin ETF inflows reached around $1.9 billion as Treasury liquidity measures helped ease pressure on long-term yields.
Demand has continued since then. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted another $242.3 million on Aug. 27, extending their positive streak to nine sessions and lifting cumulative inflows during the run to about $3.04 billion, according to fresh ETF flows.
$40T US Debt Adds to the Scarcity Trade
Fiscal concerns are also feeding the broader narrative.
US gross federal debt crossed $40 trillion on Aug. 18 and reached around $40.10 trillion by Aug. 25. The Congressional Budget Office projects a federal deficit of roughly $1.9 trillion for fiscal 2026.
That backdrop has revived interest in the so-called debasement trade: buying scarce assets when investors worry about rising debt, persistent deficits or pressure on fiat purchasing power.
Reuters has also linked Bitcoin and gold’s latest gains to a softer dollar and Treasury efforts to contain long-term borrowing costs. Bitcoin briefly moved above $80,000 this week and is up roughly 28% in August, while both digital and physical scarcity trades benefited from the same macro backdrop.
Gold remains the more established defensive asset, while Bitcoin still carries much higher volatility and crypto-specific risks. Investors comparing the two can use this evergreen Bitcoin guide for the mechanics behind BTC’s fixed 21 million supply.
The next test will come during a broader risk-off move. If Bitcoin continues trading with gold while technology stocks weaken, the current correlation shift would become more significant.
