U.S. stock futures pointed to a technology-led advance Thursday as Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings and outlook revived enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence trade, while Dow Jones futures lagged the broader market.
At 8:35 a.m. ET, S&P 500 e-minis were up 0.37% and Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.95%, while Dow e-minis slipped 0.12%, according to Reuters. The divergence highlighted the market’s continued reliance on large technology companies even as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.
Nvidia Earnings Put AI Stocks Back in Focus
Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion and adjusted earnings of $2.22 per share, while its outlook reinforced expectations that spending on AI infrastructure will remain strong. Reuters reported Nvidia shares up 6.3% in premarket trading at 8:35 a.m. ET, although the stock had earlier surged as much as 8.15% to $226.78.
The supplied Nvidia chart captures that sharp post-earnings repricing, with the stock accelerating from around $210 and pushing above $226. The Kobeissi Letter said Nvidia’s gain had exceeded 8% at one stage and estimated that the move had added more than $400 billion to the company’s market capitalization. That figure reflects the social-media post’s estimate at the higher intraday price rather than a fixed closing valuation.
Nvidia NVDA Post-Earnings Rally. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) on X
Nvidia’s strength also spread through the semiconductor complex. Micron Technology and Marvell Technology gained about 4% before the bell, while Sandisk and Western Digital rose slightly more than 4%. Salesforce jumped 10.5% after raising its annual revenue and profit forecasts, and CrowdStrike advanced 9.4% after lifting its revenue outlook.
Dow Jones Futures Flash a Different Signal
The Dow did not fully participate in the technology-driven rally. A TradingView chart shared by Investing Angles shows E-mini Dow futures forming a large bearish daily candle after rejecting the area around 53,700, with the contract near 53,400 when the image was captured.
Investing Angles described the formation as a potential warning that the recent stabilization attempt could fail. The important qualification is that the daily candle was still developing. A weak close would strengthen the bearish interpretation, while a recovery back through the rejection area would reduce the significance of the setup.
Dow Futures Bearish Daily Rejection. Source: Investing Angles (@InvestingAngles) on X
The chart therefore provides a useful counterpoint to Nvidia’s surge: technology leadership remains strong, but the Dow’s relative weakness suggests risk appetite is not broad-based across the entire market.
Equal-Weight S&P 500 Highlights Market Concentration
A longer-term chart from Value Seeker offers another view of market breadth. It tracks the ratio between the equal-weight S&P 500, represented by RSP, and the traditional market-cap-weighted S&P 500, represented by SPY.
The ratio has fallen toward the lower portion of its long-term rising channel after years of relative weakness in equal-weight stocks. Momentum indicators on the supplied chart are also attempting to stabilize, with RSI recovering from weaker levels and the MACD histogram turning slightly positive.
Equal-Weight S&P 500 vs SPY Ratio. Source: Value Seeker (@ValueSeeker_) on X
Value Seeker argues that the ratio is roughly 2.5 standard deviations below its long-term trend and estimates that a move toward 1.5 standard deviations above trend could produce about 53% relative outperformance for equal-weight stocks over a future cycle. That is a model-based scenario, not a verified market forecast. More immediately, a sustained turn higher in the RSP-to-SPY ratio would indicate that participation is broadening beyond the mega-cap companies that currently dominate the S&P 500.
Treasury Yields and Jackson Hole Remain the Next Test
The earnings rally is unfolding against a less supportive interest-rate backdrop. The 10-year Treasury yield was around 4.67% Thursday morning after July PCE inflation came in slightly hotter than expected. Headline PCE inflation reached 3.7% year over year, while core inflation was 3.3%.
Initial jobless claims fell to 203,000 in the week ended Aug. 22, below the 208,000 expected by economists surveyed by Reuters, reinforcing evidence that the labor market remains resilient.
Attention now turns to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address on Friday. Nvidia has supplied a powerful catalyst for the Nasdaq and S&P 500, but the Dow’s weakness and depressed equal-weight performance show that market breadth remains an important test of whether the rally can extend beyond the largest technology stocks.
