Gold held above $4,600 an ounce on Thursday as investors positioned for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole address, with the metal retaining most of a powerful August rally despite renewed inflation concerns.
Spot gold rose about 0.2% to $4,599.57, while US futures traded near $4,652.70. Bullion had reached a three-month high earlier in the week before higher inflation data interrupted a five-session advance. Gold remains up roughly 14% in August, supported by concerns over government borrowing, the dollar and Treasury-market intervention.
The move has coincided with strength across scarce assets. Bitcoin and gold recently rallied together as falling long-term yields and dollar weakness revived the so-called debasement trade, while expanded Treasury bond buybacks have intensified debate over the longer-term consequences of rising US debt.
Treasury Moves Add Fuel to Gold’s August Rally
The latest leg higher accelerated after the Treasury expanded liquidity-support purchases of longer-dated government bonds. The changes helped push yields lower initially and revived demand for assets that investors often use as protection against currency depreciation.
That backdrop has become increasingly important with federal debt above $40 trillion. Concerns over whether bond-market intervention can address the underlying fiscal imbalance have also featured in the recent Treasury debate.
Gold’s broader momentum has strengthened alongside those macro concerns. Bullion-backed ETFs added more than 28 tonnes in the previous week, their strongest weekly accumulation since January, according to data cited by BeInCrypto. Gold has also climbed back above its 200-day moving average, reinforcing the technical recovery after its earlier decline.
Warsh’s Jackson Hole Speech Becomes the Next Catalyst
Attention now turns to Friday. The Federal Reserve schedule confirms Warsh will deliver keynote remarks at 10 a.m. ET on August 28, his first major Jackson Hole speech since becoming Fed chair.
Markets are looking for clarity on how aggressively Warsh intends to tackle inflation. July PCE inflation remained at 3.7% year over year, above the Fed’s target, while Reuters reported that the probability of a September rate hike had fallen to about 36%, compared with roughly 72% odds of an increase by December.
The tension is straightforward for gold. A hawkish Warsh could lift real yields and the dollar, creating pressure on a non-yielding asset. A less aggressive message could reinforce the debasement narrative and reopen the path toward $4,700.
That level is already a key technical focus in the latest gold forecast, while investors assessing bullion as a longer-term defensive holding can also compare its characteristics with Treasuries and monitor the gold-silver ratio for relative precious-metals strength.
