Gold pulled back toward $4,640 on Tuesday after touching its highest level in more than three months, leaving traders to decide whether the rally is pausing or beginning a deeper correction. Short-term charts put $4,615-$4,623 at the first important support zone, while the broader trend remains constructive as investors await U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
Gold Pulls Back After Rally Toward $4,700
Spot gold slipped 0.2% to $4,640.39 an ounce as of 0334 GMT on Aug. 25, according to Reuters, after the metal reached a three-month high. U.S. gold futures were little changed near $4,696, keeping the futures market at a premium to spot prices.
Gold’s recent advance has been supported by a softer U.S. dollar and falling long-term Treasury yields after the U.S. Treasury announced plans to expand buybacks of longer-dated securities. The dollar index was near 98.96 in Asian trading Tuesday, while investors continued to assess the implications of Treasury intervention and persistent concerns about U.S. fiscal policy.
Attention is now shifting toward U.S. PCE inflation data and Warsh’s first Jackson Hole address as Fed chair. Persistent inflation could keep interest-rate expectations elevated, which would normally create a headwind for non-yielding gold, while softer inflation or a less hawkish policy signal could support another push higher.
XAU/USD Tests $4,615-$4,623 Support After Rejection
The 15-minute XAU/USD chart shows gold retreating sharply after testing the $4,680-$4,700 region. Price was around $4,630 on the chart, placing it between nearby resistance and the first marked demand zone.
Forex Expertise identifies $4,615-$4,623 as the first intraday liquidity and reaction area. Holding that zone could allow buyers to challenge $4,658-$4,668 before another test of the $4,680-$4,692 swing-high liquidity region.
Gold XAUUSD 4615-4712 Intraday Levels. Source: Forex Expertise on X
Above that, $4,700-$4,712 is the key short-term breakout zone. Sustained 15-minute acceptance above $4,712 would invalidate the chart’s bearish setups and strengthen the case for continued upside.
The downside scenario becomes more important if $4,615 fails. The next charted support sits at $4,588-$4,597, followed by stronger demand around $4,558-$4,568. A decisive break below $4,558 would signal that the current pullback is becoming a deeper correction rather than a routine retest.
Weekly Gold Trend Remains Constructive
The supplied weekly COMEX gold futures chart provides a more bullish longer-term picture. Gold futures were near $4,693, comfortably above the 50-week exponential moving average around $4,278.
Weekly RSI stood near 59.7, recovering above the neutral 50 level without entering overbought territory. That combination suggests momentum has improved following the correction from the earlier peak above $5,000.
The broader price structure therefore remains constructive while futures stay above the rising 50-week average. A renewed move through the recent weekly highs would shift attention back toward the previous major peak, while losing the moving average would weaken the recovery thesis.
TD Securities told Reuters that gold remains supported but said it may still be premature for the metal to reach its $5,350 target, particularly if inflation pressure keeps interest rates elevated.
For the immediate gold price outlook, $4,615 is the first downside test and $4,700-$4,712 is the key bullish trigger. Holding support while reclaiming that resistance would favor another leg higher, while a break below $4,558 would point to a more substantial correction.
