Silver is back near $68 after its latest rally lost momentum, putting a key short-term resistance zone and the broader weekly recovery under scrutiny. The metal still has structural support from a persistent supply deficit, but JPMorgan’s $63 fourth-quarter forecast highlights the risk that higher rates and easing physical tightness could limit the rebound.
Silver Falls as Markets Turn to U.S. Inflation and the Fed
Spot silver fell 1.3% to $68.01 an ounce early Tuesday, retreating alongside gold as investors shifted attention toward upcoming U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Precious metals have recently benefited from a softer dollar and lower long-term Treasury yields, but persistent inflation could keep rate expectations elevated and pressure non-yielding assets such as silver.
The medium-term outlook is also becoming more complicated. J.P. Morgan Global Research expects silver to reach $63 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026 and average about $70 for the full year, sharply below its previous forecast. The bank cited easing physical-market tightness, softer industrial demand in some markets and the possibility of higher global interest rates.
Supply conditions still provide a counterweight. The Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026 estimated a 40.3 million-ounce market deficit, marking a fifth consecutive annual shortfall.
XAG/USD Faces a $68.38 Resistance Test After Sharp Sell-Off
Eagle Pips Pro’s 15-minute chart shows silver attempting a rebound after a steep decline, but the recovery remains below a marked resistance area near $68.38. That level could determine whether the bounce gains traction or sellers regain control.
Silver XAGUSD $68.38 Resistance and $66.96 Target. Source: Eagle Pips Pro on X
The chart places the main reaction area around $68.38, with XAG/USD near $68.04 at the time shown. Eagle Pips Pro’s scenario looks for a retracement into that resistance before considering renewed downside, rather than chasing the initial drop.
A rejection around $68.38-$68.51 would preserve the bearish short-term structure and put the charted $66.96 area back in focus. The setup therefore depends on resistance holding rather than simply assuming another decline from current levels.
Conversely, sustained acceptance above roughly $68.51 would weaken this bearish scenario. Such a move would indicate that buyers are reclaiming the immediate breakdown area and could shift attention toward the psychologically important $70 region.
Weekly Silver Trend Holds Above the 50-Week EMA
The broader COMEX silver futures chart presents a more balanced picture. Futures were around $68.04, while the 50-week exponential moving average stood near $63.93, leaving price above an important long-term trend gauge despite the recent correction.
Weekly RSI was around 51.1, slightly above the neutral 50 threshold and recovering from weaker readings seen during the latest decline. Momentum is therefore improving, but the indicator does not yet show the kind of strength associated with a decisive bullish breakout.
The 50-week EMA near $63.93 is particularly notable because it sits close to JPMorgan’s $63 fourth-quarter forecast. A sustained break below that area would weaken the broader recovery structure and support the case for another deeper correction.
For bulls, reclaiming and holding above $70 would provide a clearer sign that the rebound is strengthening. For now, silver remains caught between short-term resistance near $68.38-$68.51 and a considerably stronger weekly support structure around the mid-$60s, leaving the next breakout likely to define whether the recovery extends or JPMorgan’s more cautious outlook gains ground.
