Silver is pulling back after its latest rally, but XAG/USD remains above a technical level that could keep the recovery alive. With U.S. inflation data due Wednesday and Citi’s $70 near-term silver forecast still in play, traders are watching whether silver can clear resistance near $67 or lose support around $63.
Silver Price Today: XAG/USD Pulls Back Ahead of U.S. CPI
Spot silver fell 1.7% to $64.64 an ounce on Tuesday, Aug. 11, after climbing 2.3% to $65.03 on Monday. The retreat comes as precious-metals traders prepare for the July U.S. Consumer Price Index report, a key test for expectations around Federal Reserve policy.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release July CPI on Wednesday, Aug. 12, at 8:30 a.m. ET. June inflation fell 0.4% month over month but remained 3.5% higher than a year earlier, while core CPI was unchanged for the month and up 2.6% annually.
For silver, softer inflation could support the price if it further reduces expectations for tighter Fed policy and pressures the dollar. A hotter reading would create the opposite risk, particularly after silver’s sharp recovery from its July lows.
Silver Technical Analysis: $63 Support Keeps $67 in Play
The four-hour XAG/USD chart shows silver recovering strongly from the July decline and moving back above the $63 area. Price was near $64.61 when the chart was captured, with immediate support marked at $63.34 and $63.02.
Silver XAG/USD 4-Hour Chart. Source: Kamile Uray (@remdocan) on X
Holding that zone keeps the short-term recovery structure intact. The first major resistance sits at approximately $67.15. A four-hour breakout and sustained hold above that level would strengthen the bullish case and expose the next resistance near $71.56, with $77.10 becoming a higher extension if momentum persists.
The downside scenario becomes more relevant if silver loses the $63 area. In that case, the rebound would lose momentum and attention could shift back toward deeper support. The chart highlights $54.80 as a major lower level, making it an important invalidation area for the broader recovery thesis.
That leaves silver in a clear decision zone: $63 is the support bulls need to protect, while $67.15 is the barrier they need to break.
Citi’s $70 Silver Forecast Adds to the Bullish Case
The technical resistance levels are particularly relevant because Citi raised its zero-to-three-month silver forecast to $70 an ounce from $60 in June. At Tuesday’s $64.64 price, reaching $70 would represent roughly another 8% advance.
Fundamentals also remain supportive despite weaker demand in some industrial categories. The Silver Institute expects the market to record a sixth consecutive annual deficit in 2026, estimated at 67 million ounces, while physical investment is forecast to rise 20% to 227 million ounces.
That deficit does not guarantee higher prices, but it means the market continues to rely on above-ground inventories to bridge the gap between supply and demand.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Points to Possible Silver Outperformance
The gold-to-silver ratio is near 67, and Rashad Hajiyev’s chart shows it trading inside what he identifies as a bearish ascending wedge. A breakdown in the ratio would mean silver is gaining value faster than gold, assuming both metals otherwise remain supported.
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Chart. Source: Rashad Hajiyev (@hajiyev_rashad) on X
Hajiyev identifies 48 as an initial downside scenario for the ratio, followed by 32 if the decline becomes much deeper. His example shows that if gold were at $4,800 and the ratio fell to 48, the arithmetic would imply silver near $100 an ounce. That is a conditional scenario, not a $100 silver forecast.
The ratio itself remains useful context. A July Silver Institute study found that the gold-to-silver ratio has maintained a long-term mean-reverting relationship, with an equilibrium of just under 60:1 based on data from 1970 through May 2026.
For now, the silver price prediction remains cautiously bullish while XAG/USD holds above $63. A break above $67.15 would bring Citi’s $70 target and the $71.56 technical resistance into sharper focus, while losing $63 would warn that the latest recovery is fading.
