The CLARITY Act faces a shrinking Senate window as prediction-market traders reduce expectations for passage this year. A Polymarket chart places the chance of H.R. 3633 becoming law in 2026 at 16%. The reading follows months of declining confidence and a fresh setback in the Senate’s floor schedule.
Lawmakers must still clear procedural hurdles, secure bipartisan support, and resolve disputes within the bill. The Senate begins its summer state work period on August 10, leaving only days for action.
CLARITY Act Odds Drop to 16%
Polymarket’s all-time chart puts the 2026 passage contract near 16%. The screen also marks a 49% decline beside the current probability. The contract recorded about $4.71 million in trading volume when the chart was captured. Prices moved above 75% during parts of February and March before trending lower through June and July.
CLARITY Act News | Source: Polymarket The contract then fell sharply near August as traders reassessed the available Senate calendar. Prediction-market prices can change quickly as traders react to negotiations, schedules, and public comments.
Senate Clock Leaves Little Room
Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file cloture on the measure Tuesday, narrowing the path before recess. Under Senate rules, a cloture petition must lie over for one calendar day before the chamber votes. If senators invoke cloture, the chamber may use up to 30 hours to consider the legislation. That process can consume several days without a unanimous agreement to shorten debate.
The Senate’s published 2026 schedule lists August 10 through September 11 as a state work period. That makes August 7 the last scheduled working day before the break. Thune previously said he wanted to start the CLARITY Act process, even if senators could not finish it. A delayed start would shift attention toward September, when election activity and other legislative priorities may limit floor time.
Bill Still Needs Bipartisan Support
The House approved H.R. 3633 by a 294-134 vote in July 2025. The Senate Banking Committee later advanced its market-structure text by a 15-9 vote in May 2026. The proposal seeks clearer federal rules for digital assets and a defined division of authority between the SEC and CFTC.
CLARITY Act also creates federal pathways for intermediaries navigating overlapping agency rules and fragmented state licensing systems nationwide. It covers trading platforms, token issuers, customer protections, disclosures, and illicit-finance controls.
However, the Senate usually needs 60 votes to end debate on legislation. Republicans hold 53 seats, so the measure requires support from several Democrats under the current vote count. Negotiators still face disagreements over ethics rules, stablecoin yields, consumer safeguards, and illicit-finance provisions. Those disputes make the remaining procedural window harder to manage before senators leave Washington.
Regulators Provide an Interim Framework
Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC issued a joint interpretation in March covering federal securities laws and several crypto asset categories. The framework created categories for digital commodities, collectibles, tools, stablecoins, and digital securities. It also addressed mining, staking, airdrops, wrapping, and investment-contract arrangements involving non-security crypto assets.
That interpretation gives market participants federal guidance while Congress considers broader legislation. However, an agency interpretation cannot replace the durability and scope of a statute passed by Congress.
The CLARITY Act would establish a wider market-structure framework and assign regulatory duties through federal law. Congressional action would also set registration standards and enforcement boundaries across major parts of the spot crypto market.
