SpaceX stock fell to a new all-time low near $110 as investors weighed lockup expirations, upcoming earnings, and Starship execution. Morgan Stanley still maintained an Overweight rating and a $300 price target after Starship Flight 13 delivered several key milestones.
Morgan Stanley Sees Progress From Starship Flight 13
Morgan Stanley said Starship Flight 13 increased confidence in SpaceX’s development path, even though the Super Heavy V3 booster had a hard splashdown. The firm gave the mission an A- grade and said the latest test showed clear progress from Flight 12.
The firm pointed to several completed objectives during the test. Starship lifted off cleanly with all 33 Raptor engines firing, completed hot-stage separation, deployed 20 production Starlink V3 satellites, relit a Raptor engine in space, and achieved its softest splashdown to date.
Morgan Stanley said the booster landing would still draw criticism because only about five of 13 engines fired during the final landing burn. However, the firm said the result improved from Flight 12, when the booster failed before reaching its landing attempt.
The next major catalyst could come from Flight 14. Morgan Stanley said Elon Musk’s comments suggested SpaceX may attempt the first tower catch of the Starship upper stage during that mission.
SpaceX Stock Falls as Lockup and Earnings Risks Remain
SpaceX stock traded near $111, down more than 50% from its post-IPO peak of $225.64. The decline has pressured IPO buyers, who are now sitting on an estimated 18.5% loss.
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Investors are watching the company’s first post-IPO earnings report on August 4. Analysts expect revenue near $6.9 billion and a per-share loss between $0.22 and $0.28.
The report may also bring questions about Starship delays and SpaceX’s shift away from some Falcon 9 bookings. The company has reportedly turned away dedicated Falcon 9 customers beyond 2028 as it moves more attention toward Starship.
A lockup expiration two days after earnings remains another concern. Nearly 1 billion pre-IPO shares could become eligible for sale, which may expand the public float and add short-term selling pressure.
That larger float could also raise SpaceX’s weighting in QQQ-linked exposure, even if the stock price does not rise. Investors are now balancing that possible index effect against insider selling risk.
Analysts Keep Bullish Targets After Flight Milestones
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated that SpaceX remains “uniquely positioned across launch, connectivity, and AI.” The firm kept its $300 target, despite the sharp stock decline and ongoing concerns around valuation.
Raymond James also kept a Strong Buy rating and a Street-high $800 price target after Flight 13. The firm said the test reduced execution risk by validating important V3 upgrades.
Raymond James cited Starlink V3 deployment, the in-space Raptor relight, and intact splashdown as key achievements. The firm said those results narrowed the remaining engineering work before full reusability.
Morgan Stanley said Flight 14 could arrive as early as late August or early September. A successful tower catch of the Starship upper stage would mark another milestone for the program.
The firm also said Flight 15 could attempt to catch both the ship and the V3 booster if Flight 14 succeeds. That sequence would keep investor attention fixed on Starship’s path toward reusability.
