The odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law rose after reports that President Donald Trump supported new ethics restrictions. The White House reportedly circulated proposed language to selected Senate Republicans following weeks of negotiations. The package would limit crypto-related profits for senior federal officials while they serve in office. Polymarket traders raised the bill’s 2026 approval probability from about 31% to nearly 44%. Lawmakers must still release the revised text and secure enough votes for Senate passage.
White House Circulates Clarity Act Ethics Language
Industry sources said the White House reached an agreement on the ethics package late Monday. The proposed terms reportedly cover presidents, vice presidents, lawmakers, and other senior federal officials. Those rules would restrict officeholders from earning money through digital asset businesses during their government service.
Full details have not entered the public record, and Senate Democrats have not reviewed the final language. Democrats had treated enforceable conflict rules as a condition for providing the votes needed on the Senate floor.
Trump met Republican Senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno to discuss the unresolved ethics dispute last week. White House crypto adviser Patrick Witt also joined negotiations surrounding the market structure bill.
Reports said no agreement emerged during that meeting, but talks continued afterward. The later circulation of draft language marked a change from the uncertainty reported earlier Monday. The shift followed a sharp fall in market expectations during the earlier ethics deadlock.
Customer Safeguards Enter Revised Bill
Senate Democrats also secured stronger customer protection measures during the latest negotiations, according to Coinbase Vice Chair Ryan VanGrack. He said the revisions added tougher safeguards for digital asset users. The final wording has not been published, leaving the scope of those protections unclear.
Negotiators have also discussed disclosures, insider trading controls, custody standards, and measures addressing failures similar to FTX. VanGrack said Democratic negotiators used the process to make customers the central focus of the revised framework.
Coinbase now supports the Senate process after opposing an earlier draft in January. Chief Executive Brian Armstrong previously said the exchange could not support that version. Coinbase executives later backed revised legislation after negotiators addressed several industry concerns. The company argues that federal rules would provide registration, examination, surveillance, and customer asset protections across the crypto market.
According to Polymarket data, the CLARITY Act has a 43% chance of becoming law in 2026. The probability remains 22% lower despite its recent recovery from near 30%. Trading volume on the prediction market stands at about $2.06 million.
Clarity Act News | Source: Polymarket Data
Senate Faces August Recess Deadline
The Senate Banking Committee advanced the CLARITY Act by a 15-9 vote on May 14. Two Democrats joined committee Republicans, moving the measure toward a full Senate vote. The Senate must combine its Banking and Agriculture Committee versions before final consideration. Support from Democrats will still be needed to clear the chamber’s procedural threshold.
The Senate’s scheduled state work period begins on August 10, leaving lawmakers a limited legislative window. No floor vote appeared on the Senate schedule as of July 21. Negotiators must release the updated text, review amendments, and secure leadership time before the recess. Any delay could move consideration into September, when election-year demands may compete for floor time.
House Review Follows Senate Passage
The House passed its version of the CLARITY Act by a 294-134 vote in July 2025. That measure creates a federal framework for digital asset markets. It also defines separate oversight roles for the Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The Senate version includes later changes that could require another House vote.
If the Senate approves different language, both chambers must settle those differences before sending legislation to Trump. Ethics restrictions, customer protections, stablecoin rewards, decentralized finance rules, and law enforcement powers remain central negotiating areas.
