During the recent U.S. presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, neither candidate even mentioned cryptocurrency. The debate focused more on issues like the economy and immigration. Bitcoin’s price dropped after the debate, which certainly reflected the disappointment among crypto investors over the lack of policy discussion. Analysts still suspect that a Harris win could negatively impact the crypto market, while a Trump victory may lead to big gains for Bitcoin. While crypto is expected to influence voter decisions, neither candidate has made any concrete promises regarding crypto.
No Crypto Mention in Presidential Debate
During the first debate between U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump on Sept. 10, neither candidate even mentioned crypto. The debate focused more on other major issues like the economy, abortion rights, immigration, and foreign policy.
During the debate, Trump's odds of winning the upcoming election slipped by as much as 3% on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, which brought his chances down to 49%. This drop put both Harris and Trump neck and neck in terms of their election odds on the platform. Trump’s odds of winning recovered slightly to 50% at press time.
Trump’s odds of winning the presidency over the past day (Source: Polymarket)
Throughout the debate, Harris maintained her composure, while Trump sometimes appeared a bit agitated and made several inaccurate claims, according to the fact-checking agency PolitiFact. Shortly after the debate, pop star Taylor Swift also endorsed Harris, Swift described her as a "steady-handed" leader to her millions of Instagram followers, which added to the public momentum Harris gained during the debate.
Several market analysts have speculated that a Harris victory could have some big implications for the crypto market. Bernstein previously predicted that a Trump win could drive Bitcoin’s price to $90,000 by the end of the year, especially as Trump has made his support for the crypto industry very clear. He also made promises to dismantle current anti-crypto regulations and establish the U.S. as a global hub for cryptocurrency.
On the other hand, Harris’ unclear stance on crypto has led some people to believe that her victory could lead to Bitcoin’s price falling as low as $30,000.
The lack of crypto-related discussion in the debate comes despite the impressive influence of the crypto industry in the 2024 election cycle so far. Crypto-backed super political action committees (PACs) have raised more than $202 million. The largest PAC, Fairshake, spent more than $70 million, primarily targeting Democratic candidates.
Despite this financial involvement, crypto has not emerged as a top issue for American voters. Polls indicate that the economy, inflation, and immigration are more pressing concerns.
Harris Campaign Focuses on Economy, Skips Crypto
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris outlined new policy details ahead of the 2024 United States presidential election. It mentioned economic innovation, but also did not explicitly address digital assets or blockchain technology. An update to the “issues” section of the Harris-Walz campaign website placed a lot of emphasis on a “fairer” tax system and policies aimed at benefiting the middle class.
While Harris’s platform plans to support innovation, including in sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, there is no direct mention of crypto. This contrasts with the Republican platform led by Donald Trump’s campaign, which champions innovation using cryptocurrency.
The Democratic nominee entered the presidential race on July 21 after President Joe Biden announced that he will not seek reelection. Some experts suggest Harris may not stray too far from the Biden administration’s approach to digital assets, which has faced a lot of criticism for its regulatory stance on crypto. Despite this, several Democratic lawmakers supporting pro-crypto policies have rallied behind Harris, and see her campaign as an opportunity to reshape the party’s perception of the digital asset industry.
Brian Nelson, a senior adviser for the Harris campaign, stated that the candidate supports policies that encourage industry growth. Additionally, some former Biden administration officials with crypto backgrounds have joined the Harris campaign or related political action committees.
Bitcoin Drops as Debate Disappoints
Bitcoin's price declined into Sept. 11 after the U.S. Presidential debate left crypto enthusiasts quite disappointed. In just one hour, BTC lost $1,000 in value, and dropped to a local low of $56,099. At press time, BTC's price stood at $56,609.16, according to CoinMarketCap.
The absence of crypto policy discussion from Trump and Harris dampened hopes for pro-crypto developments. QCP Capital commented on the market’s reaction, and pointed out that crypto investors were left very unsatisfied by the lack of focus on digital assets. They also shared that the broader market sentiment could turn risk-averse leading up to the U.S. election in November.
Attention has now shifted to the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Markets are anticipating a lower print of 2.55% compared to the previous 2.9%. Despite the CPI event, QCP Capital downplayed its potential market impact, and instead placed emphasis on the importance of unemployment data as past unemployment reports have caused short-term volatility for Bitcoin.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe suggested that the ongoing correction in Bitcoin’s price is typical ahead of major CPI events. He is still optimistic, and stated that Bitcoin's price could stabilize if support holds at $55,000 to $56,000.
Meanwhile, technical patterns on the 4-hour chart revealed resistance from key moving averages. According to trader Daan Crypto Trades, Bitcoin is struggling to break above both the 200-simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA), set at $59,200 and $58,840, respectively. These levels are seen as indicators of market strength or weakness. Bulls need to reclaim them to start a stronger price recovery.
Crypto to Influence 2024 Voter Decisions
Cryptocurrencies are expected to play a major role in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, as many American crypto investors are concerned about candidates' approaches to regulating the industry. According to a new report from Gemini, the majority of U.S. crypto owners plan to consider a candidate's stance on crypto regulation when voting in November.
The report is based on a survey of 6,000 adults across several countries, and found that 73% of U.S. crypto holders said a candidate's position on crypto will influence their vote. 37% stated it would have a huge impact.
Influence of presidential candidates’ stance on crypto (Source: Gemini)
Gemini noticed that this is the first time in U.S. history that crypto has become a serious issue in a presidential election. The report also revealed increasing concerns over regulatory uncertainty as a barrier to investing in crypto. In 2024, 38% of U.S. respondents cited regulatory concerns as a reason for hesitating to enter the crypto market, up from 28% in 2022.
Despite these concerns, U.S. investors seem to be gradually shifting towards cryptocurrencies. The percentage of respondents with no crypto exposure dropped from 75% in 2022 to 65% in 2024. Additionally, the number of past crypto holders increased from 5% in 2022 to 14% in 2024.
Crypto ownership by country (Source: Gemini)
While some reports, like one from the U.S. Federal Reserve, suggest a decline in crypto usage among U.S. adults, Gemini's findings indicate a growing awareness of crypto’s role in the economy and politics.
