Key takeaways
- Ethereum faces Fed decision after sharp October losses
- QCP Capital identifies $2,150 as next major support
- Four weeks of ETF withdrawals weaken institutional demand
Ethereum faces a critical test ahead of the Federal Reserve's October 28 interest-rate decision, with ETH trading near $2,325 after losing approximately 12%-14% over the past month and institutional investors continuing to withdraw money from exchange-traded funds.
The cryptocurrency briefly fell below $2,300 over the weekend before recovering modestly. However, the rebound has failed to reverse the broader decline, leaving investors watching whether the Fed's latest guidance could trigger another selloff.
In its October 26 market commentary, QCP Capital identified $2,150 as Ethereum's next major support and $2,500 as resistance, suggesting the market remains vulnerable to further losses.
Ethereum Price Faces $2,150 Risk as ETF Selling Continues
Ethereum began October around $2,700 but has struggled to recover after repeatedly losing short-term technical support.
The decline has also pushed ETH below important moving averages. Analysts at CoinDCX identified the 200-day exponential moving average near $2,318 and the October 24 low around $2,280 as immediate levels to monitor.
A sustained break below that region would strengthen the bearish case and potentially expose QCP's $2,150 target.
The latest Ethereum liquidation wave has already demonstrated how falling prices can force leveraged traders to close positions, adding to selling pressure.
QCP reported that Ethereum ETFs recorded their fourth consecutive week of withdrawals, losing approximately $220.7 million in the latest reporting period.
Earlier data showed October ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion, reversing much of the institutional optimism that supported Ethereum's September recovery.
The weakness is particularly notable because ETH has underperformed Bitcoin. QCP placed the ETH/BTC ratio near 0.029, reflecting declining relative strength.
Fed Decision Could Determine Ethereum's Next Move
The Federal Reserve will announce its policy decision Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET, followed by Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.
A Reuters survey found that economists overwhelmingly expected policymakers to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00%.
However, the bigger question concerns December.
All 100 economists surveyed expected another interest-rate increase in December, reflecting persistent inflation and concerns about energy prices.
Higher rates can make interest-bearing investments more attractive relative to cryptocurrencies, potentially weakening demand for risk assets.
That macroeconomic pressure has already complicated Ethereum's attempts to recover above $2,500.
The Fed decision also arrives before important U.S. inflation and economic growth data scheduled for October 29.
Those releases could reshape expectations for monetary policy even after Wednesday's announcement.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Could ETH Recover to $2,500?
For buyers, reclaiming $2,362 would represent an initial improvement, according to CoinDCX's latest technical assessment.
Further gains above $2,400 could bring the $2,450–$2,500 resistance region into focus, although the broader trend would remain uncertain until Ethereum establishes stronger buying momentum.
A sustained breakout could revive discussion of Citi's $3,028 forecast, a 12-month target issued earlier in October.
However, the immediate outlook remains more cautious.
If ETH loses $2,280, selling pressure could increase toward $2,150. RoboForex separately identified $2,100 as a potential bearish scenario following a breakdown.
Ethereum's recent Glamsterdam testing delay adds uncertainty to the technical outlook, although it does not establish a direct cause for October's decline.
Meanwhile, Tom Lee's longer-term bullish forecast contrasts sharply with current institutional selling.
