The Nasdaq-100 index closed at a record 31,076, gaining 0.87% and securing its second consecutive record close. On Jan. 31, 2023: the day Burry posted simply “Sell” the Nasdaq-100 closed at 12,101.
That puts the index up roughly 157% since the warning, meaning $10,000 tracking the benchmark would have grown to about $25,700 before fees and dividends. Nasdaq data compiled by the Federal Reserve confirms the 2023 starting level, while the latest close is 31,076.44.
Burry’s “Sell” Call Needs Some Context
The comparison is striking, but Burry’s original message was more complicated than a simple long-term bearish call on technology stocks.
Burry later explained that his Jan. 31 post was motivated by concerns about an approaching banking crisis, rather than a specific forecast that the Nasdaq-100 would collapse. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank subsequently failed in March.
By March 30, however, Burry publicly reversed course, writing that he had been “wrong to say sell.” He has since reiterated that the viral post is often shown without that later context.
Still, the performance since then is extraordinary.
AI Turned the Nasdaq Into a Different Market
The biggest reason is artificial intelligence.
Nvidia, Microsoft, Broadcom, Meta, Amazon and other mega-cap companies have benefited from a multiyear surge in AI infrastructure spending and corporate adoption. That concentration has allowed large technology stocks to carry the benchmark even when the broader market has been considerably weaker.
The effect was visible again in September, when the Nasdaq-100 gained 3.3% despite weakness across most sectors and small-cap stocks. That growing market split increasingly reflects the dominance of a relatively small number of mega-cap companies.
AI exposure has also become deeply embedded across major U.S. benchmarks, with AI stocks accounting for an unusually large share of index weight.
Even 5.3% Treasury Yields Haven’t Stopped Tech
Perhaps the most unusual part of the current rally is that it is happening with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%.
Higher yields normally pressure growth stocks because they reduce the present value of future earnings, a relationship explained by the mechanics of Treasury yields.
Yet the Nasdaq has continued setting records because AI earnings growth has so far been strong enough to offset that pressure. The latest record rally shows just how powerful that trade remains.
