Short-term Bitcoin holders are sitting on an unrealized profit margin of roughly 33%, the highest since December 2024, according to CryptoQuant.
Holders also realized profits on 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, the largest single-day total of 2026.
The warning arrives just after Bitcoin climbed to an eight-month high near $87,400 before retreating. CryptoQuant still considers BTC to be in a bull market, with its Bull Score Index at an “extremely bullish” 90 out of 100, but rising profitability creates a much larger pool of potential sellers.
Bitcoin’s Rally Is Creating Its Own Selling Pressure
The problem is not simply that Bitcoin holders are profitable. Strong bull markets routinely absorb profit-taking when fresh demand is strong enough.
The risk appears when available supply rises while demand starts weakening.
CryptoQuant says spot Bitcoin demand has contracted recently, while growth in futures activity has also slowed. That makes the current 33% short-term holder profit margin more significant: traders have a strong incentive to lock in gains precisely when marginal buying appears to be cooling.
Bitcoin has already struggled to sustain moves above the $85,000–$87,000 region, with higher Treasury yields adding another obstacle. The 10-year yield recently climbed above 5%, leaving BTC caught between improving crypto sentiment and a tougher macro backdrop outlined in the latest Bitcoin outlook.
ETF Buyers Are Still Absorbing Supply
There is an important counterweight to the selling risk.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $2.39 billion in net inflows last week, including nearly $1 billion in a single session. That ETF buying continued even as BTC retreated from its recent highs.
The inflow streak extended again this week, although daily demand slowed sharply to around $31 million, suggesting institutional accumulation remains positive but less aggressive than during last week’s surge. ETF flows could therefore become crucial if short-term holders accelerate profit-taking.
