Apple may be approaching its next era, but Wall Street does not expect the iPhone to disappear from the center of the business anytime soon.
A revenue graphic circulated by Evan projects Apple generating roughly $557 billion in fiscal 2028 revenue, up from $416 billion in fiscal 2025. The biggest contributor would still be the iPhone at an estimated $293.5 billion, while Services could reach $153.4 billion.
That would leave iPhone at roughly 53% of estimated 2028 sales, compared with Services at about 28%.
The 2028 numbers are consensus estimates compiled from Visible Alpha and S&P Global rather than company guidance, but the direction is significant: Apple is increasingly becoming a two-engine company built around hardware sales and recurring monetization of its installed base.
Apple’s own 2025 filing confirms that shift. iPhone generated $209.6 billion in fiscal 2025, while Services reached $109.2 billion, up 14% year over year. Total revenue was $416.2 billion.
Services Is Becoming Apple’s Second Giant Business
The most important change is not that Apple is moving beyond the iPhone. It is that Apple is earning substantially more money from customers after they buy one.
Apple now has more than 2.5 billion active devices and over 1.5 billion paid subscriptions, giving Services a massive distribution base across the App Store, cloud services, Apple Music, payments, advertising and AppleCare.
During the latest June quarter, Services revenue reached a record $30.7 billion, while overall quarterly revenue rose 16% to $109.4 billion. iPhone revenue was still the main growth driver, jumping 21.7% to $54.3 billion.
That makes the “post-iPhone” framing misleading. Apple appears to be building on top of the iPhone, not replacing it.
The company's latest iPhone Duo reinforces that strategy. The $1,999 foldable introduces a new premium price tier, while Apple Intelligence and the revamped Siri create more opportunities to keep users inside Apple's ecosystem. Reuters noted that Apple still has roughly 1.5 billion iPhones in use globally, making AI upgrades potentially more important than any single new hardware category.
Our recent look at the AAPL bull case also highlighted Morgan Stanley’s $360 target and the possibility that AI, a foldable iPhone and an aging installed base could trigger a multi-year replacement cycle.
Apple Still Needs the iPhone
The revenue projections also expose the risk.
Even by 2028, consensus still expects more than half of Apple’s revenue to come from the iPhone. Services may be expanding rapidly, but Apple cannot afford a prolonged slowdown in its flagship product.
That is why the iPhone Duo, Siri AI and the broader Apple Intelligence rollout matter so much.
Apple shares recently jumped 3.6% following the latest product launch, as investors responded positively to the Duo and AI upgrades.
