Silver held near $66 an ounce Tuesday, Sept. 8, as a softer U.S. dollar helped precious metals recover while elevated Treasury yields and renewed Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations kept the upside in check. Kitco showed spot silver at a bid of $66.13 and an ask of $66.38 at 2:15 a.m. New York time, with the metal trading between $65.96 and $67.29 during the session.
The near-term silver price outlook remains finely balanced. Buyers have defended the mid-$60s after the metal's sharp retreat from its January record, but resistance around $70-$72 continues to block a more convincing recovery. U.S. inflation data later this week could determine whether that range breaks.
Silver Rebuilds Above $63 After Historic 2026 Volatility
Silver's long-term chart shows how dramatically the market has changed this year. XAG/USD surged above $120 an ounce in January before reversing sharply, and the latest monthly candle shows price stabilizing around $66 after trading as low as $63.31 this month.
Silver XAG/USD Long-Term Price Recovery․ Source: Kitco
The recovery has not yet repaired the broader technical damage. Reuters technical analysis identified $71.54, the June 17 high, as an important resistance level, with $62.54 providing support below the current market. A sustained break through the heavily contested $70-$80 region would be needed to materially improve the larger technical structure.
That leaves a relatively clear short-term map. Holding the $63-$66 region would preserve the possibility of another push toward $70 and $71.54. A break below $62.54, however, would expose silver to renewed downside pressure.
Trading Volume Cools After Late-August Surge
Futures-market activity also shows that participation has eased after a burst of trading in late August. The supplied daily-volume chart shows combined silver futures and options activity peaking above 110,000 contracts around Aug. 28 before dropping to roughly half that level by Sept. 4.
Silver Futures and Options Daily Volume․ Source: CME Group
Lower volume does not signal direction by itself, but it suggests that traders have become less aggressive as silver consolidates. CME said Micro Silver futures averaged 63,000 contracts a day in August, up 286% from a year earlier, while metals trading across the exchange remained elevated.
A renewed price breakout accompanied by expanding futures volume would provide stronger confirmation than a move higher on thin participation.
CPI, Fed Expectations Put $70 Resistance in Focus
The macro backdrop remains mixed. Reuters reported silver at $66.96 earlier Tuesday, up 1.2%, as the dollar weakened. The Dollar Index was near a two-week low around 98.82, generally supportive for commodities priced in dollars. At the same time, markets assigned roughly a 60% probability to a Fed rate increase at its September meeting following strong August employment data.
Investors now face two major tests: the U.S. producer price index Thursday and consumer price index Friday. Softer inflation could reduce rate-hike expectations, pressure yields and give silver another opportunity to challenge $70-$71.54. Hotter inflation would strengthen the case for tighter policy and could send attention back toward $63.
Institutional forecasts also underline the uncertainty. J.P. Morgan Global Research expects silver to reach $63 an ounce in the fourth quarter of 2026, while a July Reuters poll produced a median 2026 average forecast of $71.90.
Longer term, supply remains supportive. The Silver Institute expects the market to post a 46.3 million-ounce structural deficit in 2026, even as weaker photovoltaic demand weighs on industrial consumption. AI infrastructure, automobiles and power-grid investment continue to provide underlying industrial demand.
For now, silver's next move depends on whether buyers can turn the $63-$66 base into a sustained break above $70. Until that happens, the metal remains in recovery mode rather than a confirmed new uptrend.
