Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by mid-2027, arguing that rising government debt and currency debasement could strengthen demand for scarce assets even after BTC’s sharp rebound.
The firm’s base case sees Bitcoin returning to roughly $125,000 by the end of 2026 before climbing to $150,000 in the first half of 2027. Bernstein then expects a cycle peak near $300,000 in 2029.
The forecast follows Bitcoin’s roughly 28% gain over 10 days after a decline of about 50% from its October 2025 peak. A recent BTC rebound also pushed Strategy’s massive Bitcoin position back into profit as the cryptocurrency recovered above $77,000.
Debt and Debasement Strengthen Bitcoin Case
Bernstein’s thesis centers on the worsening fiscal backdrop.
US sovereign debt has reached roughly $40 trillion, while higher interest rates are increasing debt-servicing costs. The analysts argue that governments may eventually tolerate greater currency debasement rather than impose the fiscal tightening needed to stabilize debt burdens.
Bitcoin could benefit because its supply is capped at 21 million coins. Coinpaper’s evergreen Bitcoin guide explains how that fixed issuance schedule underpins the asset’s scarcity narrative.
Institutional access is another part of Bernstein’s case. Around 59% of Bitcoin supply has not moved during the past year, while spot ETFs and corporate treasuries have expanded the investor base. The firm believes these structural changes may help limit the extreme 75%–90% drawdowns seen in earlier Bitcoin cycles.
Bull Case Reaches $500K
Bernstein also outlined a more aggressive scenario.
If institutional capital moves rapidly into Bitcoin as part of the debasement trade, BTC could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and peak near $500,000 in 2029. The firm maintained its longer-term forecast of about $1 million by the end of 2033.
Spot ETFs could play an important role in that scenario because they give traditional investors direct exposure without requiring crypto custody. Coinpaper’s ETF guide breaks down how that structure differs from holding BTC directly.
Strategy Target Cut Despite Bitcoin Optimism
Bernstein remains bullish on Strategy but lowered its MSTR price target to $350 from $450, citing the revised Bitcoin cycle outlook and faster equity dilution. The new target still implies about 176% upside from Strategy’s Tuesday close of $126.83.
Strategy currently holds 840,447 BTC, roughly 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply. Recent treasury activity has been more cautious, with the company pausing purchases while raising cash through equity sales.
Bernstein estimates Strategy has roughly 3.9 years of coverage for interest and preferred-dividend obligations. The company’s own capital framework also gives it flexibility to sell Bitcoin, fund reserves and repurchase securities.
The key divide in Bernstein’s call is clear: its long-term Bitcoin thesis remains bullish, but Strategy’s equity structure introduces dilution and financing risks that direct BTC exposure does not.
