Solana is holding near a major support area as traders watch for signs that the token can turn its recent stabilization into a broader recovery. Two technical setups point to $81 as the first important hurdle, while a stronger Bitcoin trend could open the door to a move toward $104 and potentially higher.
SOL Needs to Clear $81 Before $104 Comes Into Play
Solana is approaching a key technical level near $81, where a breakout could improve the short-term outlook and bring the $104 area into focus, according to a weekly chart shared by crypto trader Gum.
Solana Weekly Price Chart. Source: gumsays on X
SOL was trading near $78.42 on the chart, just below its 20-week exponential moving average at $81.64. Gum identified the $81 area as the immediate breakout level and said there is relatively little resistance between that zone and roughly $104.
The $104 level also lines up closely with the 50-week EMA at $104.38, making it the next major technical test if buyers push SOL above $81.
Still, the weekly chart shows that Solana has more work to do before the broader trend turns bullish. SOL remains below all four moving averages shown. The 200-week EMA stands near $112.62, while the 100-week EMA is around $118.92, creating another layer of resistance above $104.
Momentum has improved but remains weak overall. The weekly relative strength index is at 43.14, below the neutral 50 level but well above the oversold territory SOL approached earlier in the decline.
Gum also noted that Bitcoin is facing resistance on its daily chart, which could encourage traders to short SOL around current levels. That makes confirmation important. A weekly close above the $81 area would strengthen the recovery case, while another rejection would leave SOL trapped below its short-term trend resistance.
The trader also pointed to possible fundamental catalysts, including proposals related to Solana inflation and token burns, along with stronger on-chain activity, real-world asset growth and renewed speculative trading. Those factors could support sentiment, but the chart still makes $81 the first level bulls need to reclaim.
KillaXBT Targets a 75%-100% SOL Recovery if Bitcoin Turns Higher
A second Solana setup takes a broader recovery view but makes the bullish case dependent on Bitcoin. Trader KillaXBT said he holds a small spot SOL allocation and sees room for a 75% to 100% move if Bitcoin begins trending higher again.
Solana Weekly Support Zone. Source: KillaXBT on X
The chart shows SOL trading near $77.44 and sitting at the top of a broad accumulation zone. Three marked bid areas appear around $76.69, $67.06 and $53.33, suggesting the trader is prepared for additional weakness before expecting a sustained rebound.
That structure is important because the forecast does not depend on SOL moving straight higher from current levels. The projected path shows price moving unevenly through the support zone, including another possible drop toward the lower part of the range before a stronger recovery develops.
KillaXBT's upside scenario points toward a scale-out zone roughly between $125 and $150. That would represent a major recovery from current levels, but the trader described the position as tactical rather than a long-term bullish call.
Bitcoin is the main confirmation signal in this setup. KillaXBT said he expects the SOL move to develop once BTC begins trending higher again. If Bitcoin remains weak or the broader crypto market sells off, Solana could continue testing the support area instead.
The $76-$77 region is therefore the first level to watch. Holding that area would keep SOL near the upper edge of the trader's accumulation range, while a breakdown would expose the next support near $67. A deeper sell-off could bring the roughly $53 level into play.
On the upside, SOL first needs to recover through $81 and then challenge the $100-$104 region highlighted in the first chart. Clearing those levels would provide stronger evidence that the larger recovery scenario is developing. Until then, the $125-$150 target remains conditional on both Solana reclaiming resistance and Bitcoin returning to a sustained uptrend.
