Nouriel Roubini Warns of an AI Jobs Crisis
Nouriel Roubini warned that the rapid development of artificial intelligence could force governments to adopt universal basic income or move toward a more socialist economic model as automation reshapes the global workforce.
During an interview with Bloomberg TV, the economist said AI and robotics could replace a large portion of workers over the next 20 to 25 years. Roubini became known as “Dr. Doom” after warning about risks ahead of the 2008 financial crisis. He believes that traditional policy measures like raising the retirement age would no longer be enough to address the disruption.
(Source: Bloomberg)
According to Nouriel Roubini, governments may eventually need to provide some form of universal basic income to citizens both during their working years and after retirement. He believes this could become necessary as more jobs are automated and fewer people are able to rely on conventional employment for income.
Roubini’s outlook is closely linked to the possible arrival of artificial general intelligence, which refers to AI systems that are capable of matching or exceeding human performance over a wide range of cognitive tasks. He described the development of advanced AI as potentially the most important technological change in human history.
While AI could cause major labour market disruption, Nouriel Roubini expects it to also generate a lot of economic growth. He estimated that annual GDP growth could rise from a baseline of around 2% to 4% by the end of the decade, before potentially reaching 6% by 2040 and 10% by 2050. However, he said the big challenge will be deciding how the wealth created by AI is distributed in society.
Roubini shared two possible approaches. The first will involve redistributing AI-generated wealth after it has been created, mainly through universal basic income. The second would involve governments taking ownership stakes in major technology companies, which he described as a form of ex-ante distribution or socialism.
He specifically pointed to reports that OpenAI actually discussed the possibility of giving the United States government a 5% stake in the company. This could potentially allow the public to benefit directly from the financial gains created by AI.
Universal basic income has already been debated by several technology leaders and policymakers. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman previously supported the idea of guaranteed income, although he has since adopted a more cautious position. The British government has also reportedly considered income-support policies for workers in industries that may be heavily affected by AI.
Despite his warnings about widespread job displacement, Nouriel Roubini said his forecast should be seen as optimistic rather than apocalyptic. His scenario assumes that machines will perform much of the world’s work while economies grow at historically high rates. The big question is whether governments can distribute the benefits widely enough to prevent rising inequality and social instability.
