Bitcoin came under renewed pressure this week as institutional selling accelerated and geopolitical tensions added fresh uncertainty to global markets. According to analytics platform Swissblock, Bitcoin’s Risk Index climbed to 33 out of 100, pushing the market into what the firm describes as a high-risk zone.
The shift comes as spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record persistent capital outflows, weakening one of the market’s strongest sources of support over the past year.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Weakness
Swissblock said Bitcoin moved from an accumulation phase in March and April into a distribution phase throughout May. The firm’s Risk Index, which measures the balance between buying and selling pressure, turned bearish alongside increasing ETF outflows.
According to Swissblock, periods where the index favors sellers often reflect institutional positioning rather than retail-driven volatility.
ETF Demand No Longer Offsetting Selling Pressure
Data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode showed that US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows almost every trading day since May 7. The trend has now lasted for more than two weeks, signaling sustained institutional selling pressure.
Over the same period, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw more than $2 billion leave the market. Analysts say these outflows are adding supply pressure without enough buyer demand to absorb it.
Swissblock warned that if ETF demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin’s Risk Index could move even higher in the coming weeks.
Iran Tensions Add Another Layer of Pressure
Market sentiment weakened further after reports emerged of new US strikes linked to Iranian military targets despite ongoing diplomatic discussions in the region.
The US Central Command described the operations as defensive actions targeting missile infrastructure and vessels suspected of laying naval mines.
The geopolitical headlines triggered another wave of volatility across risk assets, including Bitcoin. Analysts noted that BTC reacted almost immediately to the escalation, continuing a pattern seen during previous global conflict events.
The latest market behavior is also reviving debate around Bitcoin’s role as “digital gold.” While Bitcoin experienced renewed selling pressure, gold markets attracted stronger inflows as investors rotated toward traditional safe-haven assets.
Some analysts argue that Bitcoin continues to struggle during periods of acute market fear despite its long-term hedge narrative. The recent divergence between gold inflows and Bitcoin ETF outflows has reinforced that argument for many traders watching institutional capital flows closely.
For now, traders remain focused on whether ETF demand can stabilize and whether geopolitical risks continue pushing investors away from higher-volatility assets like Bitcoin.
